Period
|
July 2006 –
June 20013 (7 years)
|
July 2007 –
June 20014 (7 years)
|
July 2008 –
June 20015 (7 years)
|
July 2006 –
June 20015 (9 years)
|
Mid and Small
Cap Funds
|
9.0
|
11.0
|
18.4
|
16.2
|
All Mutual
Funds (older than 9 years)
|
9.6
|
10.0
|
15.1
|
13.9
|
Excluding
M&SC Category
|
9.7
|
9.8
|
14.6
|
13.6
|
Large Cap Funds
(+Sensex/Nifty ETF)
|
9.3
|
9.0
|
12.7
|
12.2
|
- The bull run continues:
- We will see the large cap funds delivering superior returns from this point, taking their average performance to long term mean of around 15%. In this scenario, one can expect these funds to clock 16-17% per annum or more from current market levels.
- The mid-and-small cap funds will also revert to the long term mean of around 15% and this will mean them clocking something in the range of 13-14% per annum or less.
- The bull run subsides:
- We will see extremely poor performance of the mid-and-small cap funds. The average returns could range from a bad 6-7% to a tragic 2-3%. There could even be a possibility of negative returns, though that is not very likely for investments done via SIP.
- The large-cap funds will also give a poor performance but it will be more stable and should lie somewhere in the bad 8-9% range or respectable 11-12% range. The SIP investments might clock a bit better than the lumpsum ones.
- Start of a bear market / catastrophic local or global events
- This is conjecture territory and nobody can predict anything about such scenario. However, it is certain that the mid-and-small cap funds will perform very poorly compared to the funds investing in companies with larger market capitalization.
- Large-cap funds – 30-40%
- Multi-cap funds – 30-40%
- Mid-small-caps – 10-20%
- Balanced funds – 10-20%